Recently, the US Department of Commerce issued a series of new Export Administration Regulations (EAR), with 139 pages of new regulations, mainly for export control of the semiconductor industry. Sigmaintell's analysis of its impact is as follows.
Undoubtedly, the above-mentioned new regulations are intended to slow down further the mass production supply of advanced processes in mainland China, stabilize and consolidate the leading position of the United States in the field of advanced semiconductor technology, and will have an inhibitory effect on the semiconductor industry in mainland China in the short term. The differences between Chinese and Western cultures and the thought patterns have profoundly affected the development of the global semiconductor industry. With the gradual increase in global capacity and sluggish demand, the global semiconductor industry is entering a downward cycle, and the situation is "oversupply and demand.”
According to Sigmaintell’s data, the global semiconductor foundry revenue is expected to drop by about 14% YoY in 2023.It is expected that the new regulations will not substantially impact the supply and demand of the semiconductor industry but will affect the regional structure of global semiconductor supply, further delaying the rise of mainland semiconductors in the global market.
After the news of sanctions was released, US-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers suspended services to Chinese customers. Within a week of the issuance of the new EAR, some equipment factory engineers were evacuated from Chinese customers' factories. The delivery of uncompleted equipment orders and the installation of already delivered equipment has also been suspended. Although some suppliers are likely to wait and see before the implementation rules of the new EAR are released, considering that the possibility of loose implementation of the regulations in the future is very low, more companies may respond to the new EAR, which will affect the speed and efficiency of Chinese mainland semiconductors industry.
For example: the current mainstream NAND suppliers have upgraded their technology to 232L, and above, 64L will be phased out in the next few years, and 128L will gradually be downgraded to low-end products. Affected by the new regulations, mainland NAND manufacturers are catching up with Samsung and Armor. The timeline of leading manufacturers such as Samsung, KIOXIAand SK Hynix is bound to be further elongated.
On the other hand, DRAM industry giants Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix have processes below 1znm. Micron announced 1αnm mass production in mid-2021, while Samsung’s 1βnm is already under development and is expected to be mass-produced in 2023. If equipment materials and technical support are discontinued, the gap between mainland DRAM manufacturers and leading manufacturers will inevitably widen as competitors' more advanced new processes are launched.
According to Sigmaintell’s analysis, although only a few companies in mainland China are related to restricted advanced process technologies related to the new EAR, the end-use restriction clause in the new regulations emphasizes that as long as the equipment or technology can meet the needs of producing advanced processes in terms of process capability, so it is still within the scope of export control, which may further expand the scope of influence. If the new regulations continue to be implemented, the capacity expansion of IDMs and foundries in mainland China will be affected. Among them, production lines with more advanced processes are at a higher risk of being blocked.
The new regulations undoubtedly warn the Chinese industry that the development of Chinese chips is too dependent on foreign technology. After the release of the new EAR, it is bound to further promote the establishment of an independent semiconductor industry chain in China.
The current localization process for mainland China's semiconductor industry faces several challenges. First, the technology is relatively backward. It takes talent, capital, and time to break down technical barriers gradually and narrow the gap with major suppliers. Second, the introduction of new materials and new equipment is difficult. It requires not only the verification period but also the verification opportunity. Under the current environment, end customers are more vigilant about process changes caused by localization.
Since the first half of 2022, the semiconductor market has entered a downward cycle, with sluggish end demand and reduced orders. IDMs and foundries have already faced dual pressures on prices and production. Under the influence of the new EAR, Chinese mainland semiconductor manufacturers face bottlenecks in equipment maintenance and technology upgrades in the long term. The semiconductor industry in mainland China will be under pressure for a long time, and the future trend of the global semiconductor industry pattern from globalization to regionalization will become more obvious.
China's semiconductor companies will face a brain drain as EAR prohibit Americans from supporting advanced semiconductor manufacturing in China. At the same time, due to being forced to abandon the Chinese market, US equipment factories have to reduce their business, which will affect the performance of factories. Applied Materials lowered its financial forecast for the fourth quarter of 2022 on October 12, and other factories have also released news of modest forecasts.
With the strict implementation of the new regulations, the progress of advanced processes will slow down in the short term, and the focus of the semiconductor industry in mainland China may focus on mature processes. Automotive chips may become a popular track.
In the current sluggish chip market, automotive chips are still in relatively strong demand. Most automotive chips are mature processes and less affected by EAR. In the slow consumer electronics market, Chinese fabs have more incentives to accelerate automative-grade certification and switch to the automotive chip market.
Overseas manufacturers such as Samsung and SK Hynix can reduce the impact of EAR by applying for temporary licenses. However, these manufacturers believe that the supply chain risk of factories in mainland China is still high. In addition, applying for these licenses requires demonstrating to the US Department of Commerce that the end user and product use are compliant. This means that these manufacturers must give up the Chinese mainland market to obtain a license from the US Department of Commerce. This will make overseas manufacturers already building factories lose their motivation to continue investing and expanding production. Those who have not yet built factories may turn to other regions, such as their home country and Southeast Asia.
Sigmaintell believes that different regions and countries all play an essential role in the division of labor and cooperation in the global semiconductor supply chain. "Seeking common ground while reserving differences" can maintain the stable development of the semiconductor industry chain and acknowledges that Europe and the United States are leading the technology in the global semiconductor industry. At the same time, it is necessary to face the shortcomings of the domestic supply chain. End customers should also have more courage to promote the introduction and testing of upstream materials and equipment and lead local materials and equipment to enter the "golden period" of development. The industry needs to “Hide Brightness and Coexist with Crisis.”
中文：
韬光养晦、“危机”并存——新规对中国大陆半导体产业影响分析
事件回顾：
近日，美国商务部新发布了一系列出口管制条例（Export Administration Regulations，EAR），新增规定长达139页，主要针对半导体产业进行出口管制。群智咨询（Sigmaintell）对其影响分析如下：
影响综述：
毋庸置疑，上述新规意在进一步拉缓中国大陆在先进制程的量产供应，稳定和巩固美国在半导体先进技术领域的领导地位，对中国大陆半导体产业短期内将产生一定的抑制作用。中西方文化的差异，以及对问题的思考都深刻地影响着全球半导体产业的发展。随着全球产能的逐步增加以及需求的低迷徘徊，目前全球半导体产业进入下行周期，整体处于“供需过剩”的态势。
根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）数据，预计2023年全球半导体晶圆代工的营收同比下降约14%，预计该新规整体上对半导体产业的供需不会产生实质影响，而是更多影响全球半导体的供应区域结构，进一步延缓大陆半导体在全球市场中的上升速度。
直接影响
中国大陆半导体先进制程面临供应风险、追赶步伐将再次放缓
本次制裁升级的消息发布后，美系半导体设备公司纷纷暂停向中国客户提供服务。在出口管制新规发出的一周内，部分设备厂工程师已从中国客户工厂撤离、未完成设备订单交付甚至已经交付的设备装机也暂停执行。尽管这些供应商很有可能是在出口管制新规的实施细则发布前先行观望，但考虑美国商务部制定宽松实施细则的可能性很低，未来恐将有更多公司响应出口管制新规，这将影响中国大陆半导体制造业的发展速度及效率。
例如：当前NAND主流供应商均已将技术升级到232L及以上，64L在未来几年将被逐步淘汰，128L也逐渐降档为中低端产品，受到新规影响，大陆NAND厂商追赶三星、铠侠、SK海力士等头部厂商的时间线势必进一步拉长。
另一方面，DRAM行业巨头三星、美光、SK海力士的制程都在1znm以下，美光已于2021年年中宣布1αnm量产，而三星1βnm已在研发中，预计2023年实现量产。如果设备材料和技术支持断档，随着竞争对手更先进的新工艺上线，大陆DRAM厂商与头部厂商的差距将势必再次拉大。
群智咨询（Sigmaintell）分析认为，虽然根据出口管制新规字面描述，中国大陆仅有少数几家公司与受限制的先进制程技术相关，但新规中的最终用途限制条款规定，只要设备或技术在制程能力上能够满足生产先进制程所需，仍属于出口管制范畴，这将可能使得影响范围进一步扩大。如果新规继续执行，中国大陆IDM和代工厂的扩产将受到不同程度影响，其中，制程较为先进的产线扩产受阻的风险更高。
半导体供应链从全球化转向地域化
新规无疑也警示中国业界——目前中国芯片的发展，仍然对国外技术依赖过多。出口管制新规发布之后，势必将进一步推动中国建立自主半导体产业链。
当前中国大陆半导体产业的国产替代进程面临几个挑战。一是技术相对落后，技术壁垒需要人才、资金和时间来攻克，逐步缩小和主要供应商的差距。二是新材料、新设备的导入不仅需要验证周期，还需要得到验证机会。当前环境下终端客户对于国产替代导入引起的工艺变更比较警惕。
2022年上半年以来，半导体市场进入下行周期，终端需求不振、订单减少，IDM和代工厂原本就面临价格和稼动双重压力。在出口管制新规影响之下，长期来看，中国大陆半导体制造厂商面临设备维保、技术升级的瓶颈。中国大陆半导体产业将在相当长的时间内承受压力，未来的全球半导体产业格局由全球化转向地域化的趋势将更加明显。
大陆企业人才流失，美企经营业绩短期承受负面影响
由于出口管制条例禁止美国人对中国先进半导体制造提供支持，大陆半导体企业将面临人才流失。同时由于被迫放弃中国市场，美国设备厂商势必削减业务量，对厂商的业绩也有不可避免的影响。应用材料已经于10月12日降低了2022年第四季度的财务预测，其他企业内部也释放出悲观预测的消息。
间接影响
先进制程短期内进展放缓，本土芯片产业或向成熟制程及车用芯片侧重
在新规严格执行的情况下，先进制程短期内进展放缓，中国大陆半导体产业重心或将向成熟制程侧重，车用芯片或将成为热门赛道。
车用芯片在目前普遍偏冷的芯片市场中，属于需求仍然较为旺盛的应用。而车用芯片多数为成熟制程，受出口管制条例的影响很小。在目前消费电子疲软的情况下，中国厂商加速车规认证、转投车用芯片市场的动机更足。
或将影响外资厂商在华投资意愿
尽管如三星、SK海力士这样的海外厂商可以通过申请临时许可证来减少美国出口管制带来的冲击，一方面这些企业认为在中国大陆工厂的供应链风险依然较高。另一方面，申请这些许可需要向美国商务部证明产品的最终用户和用途符合规定。这意味着这些厂商要获得许可，必须放弃中国大陆市场，这会使得已经在建厂的海外厂商失去继续投资扩产的动力，而尚未建厂的厂商可能转向选择本土、东南亚等其它地区。
群智咨询（Sigmaintell）认为，当下全球不同区域、不同国家在全球半导体供应链分工合作中均扮演重要角色，“求同存异”才能维护半导体产业链的稳定发展，谦虚承认欧美在全球半导体行业的技术领先性的同时，更要直面国内供应链的短板、终端客户也应更需勇气来拉动上游材料及设备的导入测试，带领本土材料及设备迎来发展“黄金期”，产业当下更需“韬光养晦、戒骄戒躁”。
洞察
